Aamir Ayub:
The rising tensions between Iran and the United States have once again pushed the Middle East and its neighboring regions into a phase of dangerous uncertainty. An almost long-standing rivalry has, since 2025, transformed into a direct military, economic, and diplomatic confrontation. For Pakistan, facing economic fragility and security challenges, this crisis is not a far-flung geopolitical drama but is a very existing and unwelcome reality with real-life implications.
The most extreme rise in tensions happened in June of 2025 when Iran’s main nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan were attacked by the United States in partnership with Israeli forces. The United States launched this assault because Iran was said to be months away from obtaining weapons-grade uranium, according to international watches. The Iranian retaliation attack on the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, where Iran’s largest US military base lies, pushed these two nations to the edge of an open conflict. But there had to be a ceasefire after this attack, and in practical effect, it led to an end to the Iran (JCPOA) Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action 2015.
Adding to this turmoil, however, is the Iranian domestic crisis that has sparked countrywide protests from late 2025 due to economic collapse and soaring inflation rates. Estimated casualties among the demonstrators already stand between 12,000 and 20,000 by mid-January 2026 by international human rights organizations. The Iranian crisis also appears to spur an uncompromising attitude from the US in adopting “maximum pressure” on Tehran through the reimposition of UN sanctions and an embryonic 25 percent tariff on all countries that maintain trade ties with Tehran.
In the case of Pakistan, the result of this oil price hike has severe implications, as it imports around 85 percent of its oil supplies. Additionally, the rising cost of oil, already volatile with the rising tensions in the Gulf region, contributes towards inflation in the country. According to official statistics, the inflation in Pakistan remained above 25 percent for the major part of 2025, with the price of fuel and electricity rising over 30 percent with the reduction in subsidies, as a result of the IMF agreement, but the present Iran-US tensions could further accelerate this inflation rate.
Another victim of the situation is trade. The “ambitious target for the next phase is to increase the value of trade from the existing $1 billion to $10 billion,” especially in the form of border trades and agricultural products from Iran, which now faces the “painful dilemma of either developing further cooperation with a neighboring country or accessing major Western markets,” including the US market in the form of exports because the “proposed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline is still pending because of the threat of sanctions.”
Security issues are equally prominent in the foreground. Pakistan faces a long, irregular border with Iran, especially in Balochistan province, which is already plagued by terrorist violence. It is generally believed that any form of internal turmoil in Iran may offer a chance to organizations like Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) or Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to regroup. The possible entry of refugees into Pakistan, in case of any further deterioration in internal conditions in Iran, would strain an already overstretched social sector in Pakistan.
The crisis has one more large implication for Asia, related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project, as China hopes to achieve regional connectivity, which might in the end serve to connect Iran, integrating Gwadar’s port in Pakistan with Iran’s Chabahar Port in a single economic hub. US pressure to have no economic connection with Iran, however, might turn this CPEC project into another battleground for global geopolitics, instead of an attractive site for economic growth. With these advancements, it has become necessary for Pakistan to spend substantial resources protecting this infrastructure, rather than using it for development.
But in this midst, there is one unusual trump card that Pakistan possesses. It has Iran’s interests’ section in Washington, making it an unusual conduit of communication between an enemy and an ally in this Iran-US tragedy of lack of direct official contact. Pakistan has various balanced international relationships in Washington, Tehran, and in Beijing, and in Riyadh as well, making it an honest broker in this extremely sensitive Iran-US standoff. Pakistan has to maintain cool heads in this Iran-US standoff while looking after its own interests.
In a region aflame with rivalries, the soundest policy for Pakistan is one that is guided by a policy of prudent neutrality, driven by proactive diplomacy. In the clash of the titans, it is the smaller countries that are going to feel the shock waves the hardest, and for Pakistan, making its diplomacy a shield and a bridge may well prove the key long-term strategy.
The writer is a researcher in media and communication
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