By Muhammad Anwar
As the moon for Ramazan nears, a familiar shift begins in every household from Karachi to Khyber. In Pakistan, the holy month is not just a spiritual milestone; it is the year’s most significant economic event. However, as we look at the data from the past decade, a stark “Ramazan Paradox” emerges: while it is a month of fasting and simplicity, it has become a period of peak consumption that tests the resilience of both the national supply chain and the common man’s wallet.
A Decade of Nominal Growth, Real Pressure
A decade-long analysis of the “Ramazan Food Basket”, the essential mix of flour, sugar, edible oil, dates, and pulses, reveals a staggering trajectory. In 2016, a middle-class family could manage a modest month of festivities for approximately Rs. 15,000. By 2023, that figure had climbed to Rs. 42,000. Today, in 2026, even with headline inflation beginning to stabilize, the same basket exceeds Rs. 50,000.
For the average Pakistani household, food expenditure surges by 30% to 50% during this month. This isn’t merely due to “extravagance”; it is driven by a deep-seated cultural emphasis on communal Iftars and the necessity of high-calorie intake after a day of fasting. This surge creates a liquidity goldmine, fueled further by a 15% to 20% boost in remittances as overseas Pakistanis send home the “Zakat” and “Eidi” that sustain our informal social safety nets.
The SME Engine: Unlocking the Potential
While the focus is often on consumer inflation, the flip side is the opportunity for our Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). For the millions of traders, bakers, and retailers who form the backbone of our economy, Ramazan and Eid-ul-Fitr are not just holidays; they account for nearly 40% of their annual revenue.
This is where our initiative, #UnlockPakBusiness, finds its most urgent application. If we want to stabilize prices for consumers, we must empower the traders. Currently, the “Pre-Ramazan Price Peak” (which occurs 10-14 days before the first fast) is a symptom of a broken supply chain. Small businesses lack the cold storage and supply-chain financing to stock up early, leading to artificial shortages and frantic, high-priced procurement at the last minute.
From Relief to Reform
Historically, governments have relied on “Sasta Bazaars” or on other subsidies. While these provide temporary relief, they do not address the structural bottlenecks. To truly unlock the Ramazan economy, we need a three-pronged strategy:
- Digital Inclusion: We must transition our informal street vendors into the digital economy. During Ramazan, online food and grocery delivery peaks between 4 PM and 7 PM. SMEs that are not digitally visible are losing out on this massive shift in consumer behavior.
- Supply Chain Financing: Banks must offer short-term, low-interest “seasonal credit” to small traders in the months leading up to Ramazan, allowing them to bypass the middlemen who often hoard staples to drive up prices.
- Infrastructure for Perishables: The 50-100% hike in fruit prices is largely due to wastage and lack of refrigeration. Investing in local cold-storage clusters would stabilize prices and increase growers’ profit margins.
The Way Forward
Ramazan is a month of empathy. True empathy, from a policy perspective, means creating a market environment where the small shopkeeper can thrive and the head of a household can provide a dignified Iftar without falling into debt.
By focusing on the #UnlockPakBusiness framework, we can transform the Ramazan surge from a seasonal inflation crisis into a sustainable growth engine for Pakistan’s prosperity.
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The writer is the CEO of Freedom Gate Prosperity (FGP) and has over 33 years of experience in the development sector.
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