OSAMA (MPhil Student in International Relations)
June 2, 2026
Editor’s note: The following is a scenario-based analysis of plausible consequences arising from current situation.
The world would not see an unpredictable act of war if soon, US and Israeli strikes on Iran were to kill Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and Iran would retaliate by closing the narrow Strait of Hormuz, which is through which 20 percent of world oil rushes into ports every day. It would be the results of America’s strategic withdrawal over 15 years, when it abandoned the Persian Gulf with no viable protector.
It’s not just a military misjudgment, this is a crisis is the most absurd thing today and 1 in 5 of the world’s supply is tied up, oil has climbed above $100 a barrel and Gulf refineries are in ruins. It is a direct result of a multipolar flux, which reflects US retrenchment, which is that no single power takes order and that anyone acting in the region can do all the damage with available energy. So long as that is not resolved, any cease fire will be only a temporary pause in the next eruption.
The road to the chokepoint
It wasn’t just a single strike that started the crisis. It’s a collection that was put together over 10 years. The withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 and the “Pivot to Asia” in 2012 indicated that the US was repositioning its strategy while leaving its military bases in Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE. It is not the absence of commitment that deters, it’s the invitation to test resolve.
It was the first clear test in the September 2019 attack on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq facility that took hit was 5% of global oil supplies, according to the International Energy Agency. Washington declared and nothing did they do militarily. The lesson was just as obvious for the Revolutionary Guard in Iran, Energy wouldn’t be fought back. The January 2022 Taliban takeover of Afghanistan reinforced the lesson. When the US withdrew, it was telling Nikos Kanellos of Brookings in Foreign Policy (September 2021) “It called attention to the US government’s decision to tell the strategic course it was pursuing, the government of its ally, that it needed to give way to domestic politics. Iran has stepped up uranium enrichment; the Houthis have stepped up the fight; and Saudi Arabia, fearing its security blanket, has engaged in Chinese brokered mediation and even signed the March 2023 normalization deal with Iran. The agreement cooled off relations but did not change anything concerning the power balance.
The next escalation of the Houthis against shipping was operation in the Red Sea, 2023-2025. The Houthis’ next escalation was an operation in the Red Sea, 2023-2025. Find an alternative path around Africa because of attacks on more than 2,000 vessels, costing about 10-15 days to Asia-Europe. The premiums on war-risk insurance have become ten times higher. Gulf shipping disruptions were the third biggest risk to global growth according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest (April 2025). Each unpunished act doubled the amount that had to be paid for the following act. For every action that was not punished, the stakes for the next double.
When precedent becomes crisis
Now think about what it would be like if the hypothetical became reality. Iran shuts off the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping traffic drops by about 5% from usual levels. The Revolutionary Guard mounts onboard merchant ships and mines the seams. The action is condemned by a UN Security Council resolution, but the plans for restoring order are quiet due to the abstention of China and Russia.
At the same time, a systematic drone and missile attack is carried out against energy infrastructure in the Gulf. Ras Tanura is on site for Saudi Aramco 550,000 b/d facility shuts down. The Shaybah oil field is consistently hit (1 million b/d). Damage to Qatar’s world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant at Ras Laffan is estimated to take years to fix, after a drone was sent that way. The pumping station on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline is hit, severing 700,000 b/d of alternative export capacity. Crude oil prices for West Texas crude oil rise over $119 a barrel. European NG prices double. There is a shortage of fuel which creates ripples in Asia.
In April 2026, a ceasefire is negotiated that is only binding conditionally. However, after initial 24 hours only 1 tanker passes through the strait. The amount of crude loading does not exceed 0.3 million barrels per day by June 2026, versus an average of 1.5 million barrels a day prior to the crisis. In late May 2026, former US President energy advisor Amos Hochstein summed up the result tartly: “No matter what happens, the Iranians are going to control the Strait of Hormuz in the foreseeable future.” So, it is the judgement on fifteen years of a half presence.
The counterargument and its limits
It’s the rational hand-off restraint, not recklessness, as realist proponents of this view such as Barry Posen (MIT) have long touted. The money paid for Iraq and Afghanistan and the strife that followed is real costs. Vali Nasr (Johns Hopkins SAIS), on the other hand, has demonstrated that the invasion of Iraq in 2003 brought strategic advantages to Iran, thanks to the elimination of the Sunni opposition.
The argument is to be respected. The issue is not retrenchment as an eventual long-term goal. The issue is how it manifested itself, partly hidden, unclear, and divorced from any other security plan. Washington cost cut, but kept bases and treaty obligations alive, and at a minimum. Some of the consequences of engagement are still bearing on American lives and the fruits of dominance are harvesting in Iran.
Towards a new architecture of order
The way is not a resumption of the time when US was supreme, that may never return.There is a total of three directions that are significant.
First, establish a permanent treaty-based naval protection regime for the chokepoints of the Gulf, including specific commitments from all major importer economies which is China, India, Japan, South Korea, and EU.As bizarre as it seems, it is a scandal that the country’s most vulnerable to a closure of the Hormuz have given very little to defense of the closure.
Second, strengthen the energy facilities in the Gulf through an international coordinated program.Hundreds of thousands of dollars can be invested, and then lost, due to drones costing thousands of dollars.Distributed Processing Capacity, Hardened Command Systems and pre-agreed emergency protocols need to become the norm after 2026.
Third, the political deal that emerges from a ceasefire needs to be genuine and permanent.Iran has the justifiable concerns while it is engaged in destabilizing activities.The framework that has to offer what Tehran fears encirclement and impose constructive limits on the use of proxies is the only solution to a cycle of conflict and ceasefire.
Alterations in strategic drift, simmering dispositional conflicts and diminishing deterrence intersect at the Persian Gulf. A ceasefire memorandum is not a magic wand that magically conducts multipolar flux. Can only be solved with collective political will. We can see failure coming out of history right now. But one question is: Are the world’s leaders watching?
Leave a Reply