By Junaid Qaiser
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s comments in Bagh this week — that a US congressional report had effectively affirmed Pakistan’s account of the May exchange with India — were noteworthy for their clarity. In the present geo-political context, the U.S. acknowledgment carried a certain quiet significance.
The report by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, otherwise focused on Beijing’s expanding security posture, described Pakistan’s “military success” in the four-day confrontation as an illustration of Chinese systems performing under operational conditions. It was an unusually candid observation for a document of this kind and one that directly contradicts the Indian narrative presented since May.
The context bears repeating. Tensions escalated following an attack on tourists in occupied Kashmir — an incident New Delhi hurriedly attributed to Pakistan without furnishing evidence. India’s strikes on Azad Kashmir and Punjab on May 7 set off a dangerous cycle of retaliatory attacks on airbases on both sides of the Line of Control. President Trump’s intervention on May 10 ultimately prevented further escalation.
In his remarks, the prime minister also recalled US President Donald Trump’s repeated acknowledgment that Pakistan had downed seven Indian aircraft — a claim India dismisses but has struggled to refute convincingly.
The timing of the Congressional report’s release coincides with a growing aviation crisis for India. Pakistan’s continued closure of its airspace to Indian carriers has placed Air India under significant strain. According to internal documents cited by Reuters, long detours necessitated by the closure have pushed up fuel costs, stretched flight times on US-bound routes, and rendered certain services commercially unviable. Air India estimates losses of $455 million in annual pre-tax profit, and is now seeking access to Chinese airspace over Xinjiang — an option aviation experts deem highly improbable.
The broader picture is difficult to ignore. The events of May underscored the persistence of a fragile deterrence regime in South Asia. They also demonstrated that Indian assumptions about escalation control remain deeply flawed. The Congressional report’s language may not have been intended as praise for Pakistan, but it reinforces a point Islamabad’s strategic community has made consistently: the balance of capabilities in the region remains more complex than many external observers assume.
For Pakistan, the convergence of these developments paints a clearer strategic picture. The May confrontation, brief as it was, exposed fissures in India’s military planning and demonstrated the resilience of Pakistan’s deterrent posture. The unintended acknowledgment in a US report only underscores what Pakistani analysts have long maintained: that the balance of power in the air remains more contested than New Delhi is willing to admit.
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